Forex
Currency outlook: 18 August 2010
Dave Leaver, 18 August 2010
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes revealed an 8-1 vote to keep rates on hold as expected and £/US$ benefitted, trading up from 1.5498 to 1.5665 as the key 200-day moving average at 1.5490 held.
The risk-off theme that dominated the Asian session somewhat dimmed as investors also bought €/$ (1.2900) ahead of the Bund auction but the Au$/US$ (0.8988) still remained under pressure following yesterday’s failed bid by BHP Billiton for Potash.
As the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones saw gains of 1.22 per cent and 1.01 per cent yesterday, it remains to be seen if the goodwill will can be carried over to today’s session. So far the European bourses have not taken the bait, most likely due to the continued Yen buying for repatriation purposes from Japanese accounts as the significant 85.00 level comes into play in US$/Yen.
With risk improving though, the €/US$ held the key 1.2820 level and retook the 1.29 handle. In the short term, €/US$ faces stiff resistance at 1.2930 and 1.3000 with 1.2820 being major support.
The as expected MPC Meeting minutes release certainly didn’t catch anyone by surprise so sterling's rise was most likely due to the market being caught short on the trendline break at 1.5570 as compared to any fundamental shifts in UK interest rates policy. With regards to Australia, the Au$/US$ saw lows near 0.8980 before recovering to 0.9025. Once again, the Au$ selling is rumored to be due to the BHP failed bid but that feeling is being derived mostly from the speculative community so be on guard for a short squeeze.
With Japanese exporters continuing to buy the yen, we saw the US$/Yen pair dip to 85.18 right near yesterday’s New York low (85.21). Crosses rebounded though with €/Yen holding 109.60 and bouncing to 110.10 while £/Yen took the moves a step further rising from 132.42 to 133.65. With the Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa and Japanese prime minister Kan set to meet on Monday, not much is expected from Japan in the interim but everyone will be watching 85.00-84.70 in US$/Yen.
With an overall lack of data ahead in the US, all eyes and ears will be on the stock indices along with 1.2930 (€) and 85.00 (Yen).
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