Forex
Currency outlook: 20 August 2010
Dave Leaver, 20 August 2010
The risk adverse environment continued as the typically hawkish European Central Bank member Axel Weber suggested that stimulus packages would be needed for the rest of the year.
As a result, the €/US$ got pummeled taking out the week’s low at 1.2725 en route to 1.2688. In addition, both €/CHF (1.3140) and €/£ (0.8183) traded sharply lower as did €/Yen (108.29).
Undoubtedly, the 2010 low at 107.35 in €/Yen will be in focus as we move forward. Meanwhile, US$/Yen remained captive inside a tight 85.20-85.50 range with no key data points for the market to dig into. On the commodity front, AU$/US$ (0.8845) followed the euro lower and US$/C$ traded through the 1.05 handle behind a slightly weaker than expected Canada consumer price index (0.5 per cent month-on-month, 1.8 per cent year-on-year).
With no data due out in the United States, all eyes and ears will be focused on the US stock market. And now with €/Yen threatening the 105-100 region, market observers will begin to wonder if Bank of Japan action will occur in the euro cross before it dose in US$/Yen. Either way, the large amount of uncertainty engulfing all of the financial markets is likely to persist into summer’s end
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