Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, gives her outlook on the news and events afffecting the currency markets.

Risk appetite is back on after the strongest aftershock in Japan since the 11 March earthquake caused little damage. When it struck yesterday it dented risk sentiment and weighed on stocks, however, this morning European equity markets have opened higher and risky FX is off to a flying start.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD are at their highest levels since January 2010.This is due to two factors: one, the improvement in risk appetite; and two, political issues weighing on the greenback. Arguably dollar weakness has helped to spur gains in the euro and the pound, especially as the outlook for rate hikes in the Euroarea and in the UK have been thrown into confusion as both central banks try to balance inflationary fears with risks to growth.

The inability of US politicians to reach an agreement over the outstanding budget is coming to a head today. If both sides don’t pass the budget then the US government will essentially shut down. This is not a difficult situation to be in, especially as investors remain on the look out to punish fiscal impudence. If there is an eleventh hour solution to the crisis then the dollar could rebound sharply taking the shine off EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD as we end the week. (The Aussie has reached another record high above 1.0500 today).

If however, the government does shut down then there are two possible scenarios. Either the market sees it as a testament to the commitment of some politicians’ to reduce the deficit (dollar positive) or it is seen as a sign that the US political system is fundamentally broken (dollar negative and the more likely scenario in our opinion.) So in the absence of much economic data today headlines coming out of Washington will be key. President Barack Obama said he was optimistic an agreement could be reached today, but if he is proven wrong then it may send the dollar even further south.

Elsewhere, the Eurozone woke up to higher interest rates today. As mentioned above the FX market is taking its cue from the greenback, but the credit markets have been fairly cautious since yesterday’s announcement. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) wasn’t giving anything away, so although the market still expects a further two hikes this year, we will have to wait and hear from ECB members to try and gauge the future trajectory for rates (and the impact on the single currency).

Portugal is in focus today as Eurozone finance ministers meet in Hungary. Since announcing its application for a bailout loathe cost to insure debt issued by Lisbon from default have actually fallen and bond yields have also come off their highs. Yields on Portuguese debt remains elevated though, which suggests that investors remain wary of holding peripheral debt.

While finance ministers hash out the details of a Portuguese bailout, made more complex by the collapse of its government, the chances of contagion spreading to Spain continue to recede. The Spanish minus German two-year bond spread has narrowed sharply in the past week suggesting that the Eurozone crisis won’t spread any further for now. This is what the FX market is concentrating on, which is why peripheral concerns are not too much of a worry to FX traders.

Elsewhere, data out of Canada will be key today as the Bank of Canada meets next week to decide policy. The unemployment rate is set to narrow to 7.7 per cent and will be released at 1200 BST.

UK oil is set for its largest weekly rise since the start of the year and there doesn’t seem to be much to halt the rally. UK oil is up $5 this week, and continues to march towards $125 as we close the week. Stocks and oil are moving together, suggesting that the dollar effect is also weighing on commodity prices. However, oil prices could remain elevated for some time yet. Nigeria, a producer of high quality crude, is holding elections next weekend, which often coincides with periods of oil production disruption. Whether or not this is currently pushing oil higher, or if any trouble in Nigeria could spur a further rally in crude, we will have to wait and see.

Likewise, the inverse correlation between gold and silver (now above $40 per ounce) is also holding strongly this morning.