Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, gives her views on the news and events affecting the currency market.

Euro - Storm clouds gather

The euro has got off to a terrible start during this holiday-shortened week. News that a euro-critical Finnish party 'True Finns' had made big gains in the weekend’s general elections, winning a hefty 19 per cent of the vote, caused the single currency to start on a weak note. Added to this was the news that Greece had discussed with Europe’s finance ministers a possible restructuring at last week’s ECOFIN meeting, which didn’t help matters for the single currency.

We seem to moving into the next phase of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe where debt restructuring comes to the fore. This is going to be the most painful part of the crisis and although it will most likely be played out in the credit markets it has the ability to disrupt the euro as we have seen in recent days. In the long-term however, making the debt burdens of Greece, Ireland, Portugal et al sustainable is a good thing for their economies. However, adjusting to a world where Germany doesn’t back-stop the Eurozone’s debt will require an adjustment of risk that could cause volatility in asset markets over the coming weeks. Unsurprisingly, Greek credit-default swap rates have spiked to a new record of 1,150, or approx. more than a 60 per cent chance of default.

In the short-term we think the euro will trade in a choppy range. Volumes are likely to be thin this week as we lead up to the Easter break and we expect there to be more headlines trickling out of Europe about what a Greek debt restructuring would look and feel like. In the short-term EUR/USD could be stuck in a 1.4530 – 1.4300 range.

Overall, the election of an anti-Europe party in Finland, one of the richer Eurozone states, suggests that the financially weak peripherals have to learn to stand on their own two feet going forward. This makes debt restructuring likely and not just for Greece – Portugal and Ireland may follow depending on how their economies perform in the coming quarters.

It’s a light day for economic data as we start the week. The markets will be watching central bank speakers closely. Already European Central Bank’s Michael Bonello has come out on the dovish side saying that risks to growth remain on the downside, and the European Central Bank must 'preserve all options' in face of economic uncertainty. He added that the Bank can’t do much about imported inflation, so it needs to be cautious about raising rates on the back of rising headline inflation.

Elsewhere, the dollar index is mixed as the euro dominates the news-flow and the markets. This is reflected in oil, gold and silver prices, which are also trading sideways, albeit at elevated levels. Stocks are lower across the board in Europe as investors dump riskier assets. This bout of risk aversion is also evident in the yen, which is stronger across the board. USD/JPY is back down to 82.70/80, any lower than this and the market should be concerned about intervention risk.

The Kiwi dollar has come off its three-year peak reached on Friday. This was fuelled by weaker than expected consumer prices for the first quarter. CPI rose by 0.8 per cent versus expectations of a 1 per cent rise. This pushed the annual rate to 4.5 per cent, up from 4 per cent in Q4 2010. So inflation remains elevated enough to keep the Reserve Bank of New Zealand wary of price pressures. NZD/USD remains supported above 0.7900.

Ahead today, watch out for a raft of Federal Reserve speakers including Dick Fisher, Dennis Lockhart, and James Bullard. Fisher is expected to talk about the US economic outlook in Atlanta, at 1730 BST (1230 ET), which has the potential to move the markets.