Markets
Greece will leave the Euro, says BNY Mellon
Ellie Duncan, 12 September 2011
Greece’s departure from the Euro is inevitable as the Eurozone remains the biggest risk to the global economy, according to BNY Mellon.
Paul Brain, manager of BNY Mellon’s Newton International Bond fund, said despite being three years into economic recovery, growth in Western economies is ‘dangerously close to stalling’ as employment conditions remain subdued and consumer spending sluggish.
He explained, ‘So far, the authorities have tried to put off the inevitable, but as the economic numbers from the North of Europe start to deteriorate, there is a groaning realisation that events are reaching boiling point.’
Brain added, ‘The Southern states are unable to reduce their deficits through fiscal austerity because their economies are not growing, as confirmed by recent data from Greece.
‘We believe that, realistically, the current idea of a modest ‘bond haircut’ is not sufficient to bring Greece back onto a more sustainable budget path.’
He said a debt default could bring about a ‘major collapse’ of the European banking system but that it was time for Greece to exit the euro.
‘We have argued for some time that this is inevitable, and that all other plans have simply been about building enough time for the European financial system to prepare for this eventuality.’
Brain reiterated that a ‘more drastic approach’ was necessary as the current fiscal austerity plan is failing to return the European economies to growth but warned that controlling any ‘resultant contagion’ might be beyond the scope of the authorities.
He explained, ‘A default with a 40 per cent ‘recovery rate’ (return of capital) would reduce the Greek deficit to a more sustainable level. Introduction of a new drachma currency and support from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) would be essential, we believe, through what is likely to be a very difficult period.’
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