Markets
Markets soar on reports of Eurozone plan
Matthew Jeynes, 28 November 2011
Markets staged a major risk rally today after it was reported that France and Germany were rushing through plans for closer Eurozone fiscal unity.
The two largest Eurozone economies are said to be considering pushing through closer fiscal integration between a core of Eurozone countries within weeks, rather than waiting for the whole EU to ratify changes.
There was also positive sentiment from reports that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was compiling a €600 billion (£515 billion) bailout fund for Italy.
Despite a denial from the IMF this morning, which indicated that its current budget is only €285 billion (£245 billion), investors clearly feel a plan is in the pipeline.
Even a report from Moody’s this morning, which suggested the possibility of widespread cuts in its credit ratings for EU countries, and concluded that ‘the probability of multiple defaults by euro area countries is no longer negligible’, has failed to halt the rally.
After a minor upward tilt on Friday 25 November ended a nine day downward streak, the FTSE 100 has today surged up 3.03 per cent to 5,321.22 at 3.30pm.
The banking and mining sectors were leading the blue-chip index up, along with engineering firm Weir Group, which continued its rise following its acquisition of Seaboard Holdings.
The only company in the red was Randgold Resources after its announcement that significant setbacks had affected production in the fourth quarter.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, commented that the bond markets, in which German ten-year yields are higher while Italian and Spanish are lower, showed that ‘markets are expecting some form of bailout and action to be taken on Spain and Italy’.
Brooks indicated that any solution to Italy and Spain’s problems would be detrimental to Germany.
She said, ‘Either Eurobonds are introduced, meaning that German debt costs converge (rise) towards rates that its European counterparts pay, or the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) levers up and Germany is on the hook to pay for 20 per cent to 30 per cent of European bond guarantees.’
Highlighting the upcoming EU leaders summit on 9 December, Brooks claimed, ‘The Eurozone is reaching boiling point and the decisions made in the next two weeks will determine the survival or collapse of the euro and the Eurozone project in the medium term.’
Meanwhile, UK markets will be looking towards tomorrow and the impact of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, in which George Osborne is expected to announce a program of credit easing to small businesses and an increase in the bank levy.
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