Share Dealing
US comes out of recession
Clara Tracey, 29 October 2009
The world’s largest economy has exited recession, showing annualised growth for the third quarter of 3.5% according to data reported today. The figures are stronger than market expectations, in sharp contrast to the UK’s worse than expected figures last week.
While the news signals the end of the worst recession in 70 years, questions will be asked as to whether this is a statistical recovery or whether it is in fact the start of a meaningful and sustained upturn. The latter seems less likely when the vast government stimulus measures are factored in.
Duncan Higgins, senior analyst at Caxton FX comments : "President Barack Obama has injected $787 billion (£480bn) into the economy and on top of that has been the "cars for clunkers" scheme, which had a significant impact on automobile sales. Concern will now linger over whether the US economy will be able to sustain this level of growth as the government begins to unwind these stimulus packages."
Indeed, following the termination of the car scrappage scheme back in August, car manufacturers have already reported a drop in sales. This is particularly worrying given that without auto output, the economy would have expanded at only a 1.9 percent rate in the third quarter.
Higgins continues, saying, "US unemployment is still stubbornly on the rise, currently hovering just below 10%. For those out of jobs, exiting the recession will provide little comfort."Other data this week has already raised questions about the longevity of this recovery, with consumer confidence dipping to recessionary levels and new home sales falling unexpectedly.
In response to the news, stock markets lifted around the world. Prices for U.S government debt and the US dollar fell as traders looked to riskier, higher yielding assets, prolonging a recent rally based on increasing risk appetite.
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