Share Dealing
US Sector View: Time to Move
05 May 2010
We've been holding a relatively neutral stance for a couple months, with a lone outperform rating on health care and a single underperform rating on consumer discretionary. But we believe now is the time to shift our view on a couple of other sectors.
First, we are moving our outlook on the information technology sector back to outperform from marketperform. We had downgraded the group at the start of the year, noting that we still liked the fundamentals but were a bit worried about overly optimistic sentiment.
Since then, the fundamentals have remained solid, and we believe the sector has digested most of the gains seen in 2009 by trading roughly in line with the market over the last quarter.
In our view, this action has worked off some of the froth that may have been developing in the sector. Companies who have underinvested in capital during the past couple of years appear to be starting to loosen their purse strings - likely looking to tech as a place to invest first.
Kully Samra, branch director at Charles Schwab UK, gives his view on the US and highlights some sectors for investors to keep an eye on.
These investments are typically attractive because they tend to increase companies' efficiency and productivity at all levels. As a result, companies can produce more with fewer workers, which allows companies to cut back on costs and potentially expand margins.
Additionally, balance sheets in the sector are solid, with large cash balances and relatively low debt. This enables the group to increase dividends and pursue mergers and acquisitions that might help performance.
These factors, along with relatively favorable outlooks from numerous companies during the recent earnings reporting period, lead us to boost our rating on the tech sector to outperform.
Second, we're downgrading the materials sector from marketperform to underperform. As the economic recovery matures, we believe some of the more economically sensitive areas of the market, such as materials, may start to lag.
We believe the sector has outperformed the underlying fundamentals and is due for a pullback in the near future. With multiple countries (including China, India, Australia and Canada) looking to remove economic stimulus and tighten monetary policy, we think demand for materials may soften in the coming months. Additionally, monetary tightening could pressure commodity prices, which we believe have become a bit extended, likely further dampening enthusiasm for the materials group.
We also continue to hold a market perform rating on our other six sectors: consumer staples, energy, financials, industrials, telecom and utilities. These opinions are tactical in nature and can change quickly according to conditions in the market.
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